Working approach Strategic foresight

Strategic foresight enables alternative scenarios to be imagined and options for action to be developed, which in turn helps to inform decision-making processes. Strategic foresight means thinking ahead of time.

There is a global trend towards more strategic foresight – in business and academia, in international organisations and in national governments. The European Commission has published regular Strategic Foresight Reports since 2020.

Methods of strategic foresight

Strategic foresight applies methods from a variety of disciplines. The most well-known of these include the Delphi method and scenario planning.

The Delphi method

The Delphi method comprises a series of systematic, multi-stage questionnaires in which experts give their opinions on the issue at hand. This process provides a range of viewpoints on a given question. It can help to achieve consensus and facilitates communication around possible future developments.

The BMZ has conducted two Delphi studies to date: “The future of African-European relations” (2020) and “Development Policy in 2032” (2018).

Scenario planning

Scenario planning involves developing multiple hypothetical but plausible narratives about possible future scenarios. It presents options for how a given situation might occur in the future, what alternatives there might be and what options various actors have at different points in time for influencing the course of events and steering future developments. Scenario planning can be a helpful approach in cases where there is a high level of uncertainty around the issue being analysed.